Wednesday, September 25, 2013

Why Does the IPCC Leak Its Findings?

So pro-global warming writers can write articles like this:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Top scientists from a variety of fields say they are about as certain that global warming is a real, man-made threat as they are that cigarettes kill.
They are as sure about climate change as they are about the age of the universe. They say they are more certain about climate change than they are that vitamins make you healthy or that dioxin in Superfund sites is dangerous.
By doing so, they attempt to influence public opinion before the study is even officially released. Ladies and gentlemen, it is mostly about spin.

As we have previously discussed, I believe there is a 100% chance humans affect the climate. We've known that since the Metromex study of the early 1970's. Where I strongly disagree with the IPCC,

  • They believe the sun and cosmic rays play a trivial role in climate. 
  • They believe (simplifying) there is a one-to-one relationship between CO2 and earth's temperature. As the decade-and-a-half of no warming demonstrates, that isn't true. I believe it is a logarithmic relationship as the classic laboratory experiments demonstrate. 
  • They believe they have skill forecasting the climate decades in the future. I believe that skill doesn't currently exist. I wrote about that here and in other places. The wildly incorrect forecasts made last year of polar ice disappearing by 2013 (it rose 60%) and of this year's Atlantic hurricane season should convince any fair observer we can't make consistently reliable long-range months ahead, let alone years.
  • There is no evidence that hurricanes or tornadoes (see below) are getting worse due to global warming. 
If you would like to read the rest of what you might call the "climate skeptics' consensus," go here

The fact Big Climate is demonstrably wrong time-after-time has no effect on their certainty. For example, go back to the news headlines just twelve months ago:

Even with these headlines ascribing certainty, the summer of 2013 was colder than normal in the Arctic and ice cover was up 60%, as even Big Climate is forced to admit. [Note, I'm making no forecasts of the future.]

As to "runaway global warming 'arriving'," here are the last twelve months of world temperatures using exactly the same data (the HADCRUT data set) as used by the IPCC. See any runway warming? Me, either.

The official report will come out in a few days and people will believe what they want to believe. Is global warming a problem? Probably, but it is (in my opinion) likely to be small and is somewhat balanced out by its favorable aspects like longer growing seasons. There is also the potential for global cooling, which is -- potentially -- an even more serious problem for humanity than warming. Unfortunately, Big Climate mostly chooses to ignore that threat. 

So, billions will have been spent, millions of trees will give their lives to printing the news, and little will change. Of course, when compared to the cost of "curing" global warming, that is probably a good thing. 

Oh, and by the way: It is not at all certain that dioxin at some of these sites is hazardous. And, if you believe the Mayo Clinic, multivitamins may not make you healthier. Such is the quality of much science 'journalism' these days. 

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