Tuesday, August 27, 2013

Another Massively Wrong Global Warming Forecast

Since climate science is supposed to be part of atmospheric science (and I'm an atmospheric scientist) is becoming depressing writing about failed forecast after failed forecast. Here is another...

The forecast: Global warming advocate Seth Borenstein wrote this piece for Associatecd Press that was printed on National Geographic's web site:


The reality:

The white is ice as of August 13-19 (multiple satellite passes were required to create the image). Instead of disappearing, for the first time in years the ice is back into the normal (gray) range:
You can see how much more ice there is now (blue line) than there was in 2012 (dashed gray line). Will the ice increase continue? Who knows? Science is not good at forecasting a year into the future. 

But, this does show that, yet again, another apocalyptic global warming forecast could not have been more wrong. 

5 comments:

  1. Arctic sea ice "recovers" to its 6th-lowest extent in millennia.

    Arctic sea ice extent remains at remarkably low levels despite misleading reports of a "recovery".
    Even after this "recovery" we are still 40% below the ice we have had for thousands of years.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/19/climate-change-arctic-ice-sixth-lowest-in-millennia

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please demonstrate an empirical causation correlation between Arctic ice extent and the level of co2 in the atmosphere.

      "I don't know how else to explain it!", "no, you prove that I'm wrong" or "we have a consensus." Is not evidence. You made the claim, the burden of proof is on you.
      Calling me a flat earther, moon landing denier or asking me for my qualifications is not evidence.
      Next time you can explain how decreasing Arctic ice extent proves global warming and increasing record Antarctic ice extent also supports your theory.
      I have not denigrated you, asked you to prove your worth or criticized what you said in any way. I just ask that you back up what you say with credible evidence.

      Delete
  2. You are an atmospheric scientist? You have published? Are you one of the 3% that is not yet convinced?

    Predictions have been astoundingly good: Warmer global temperatures, acidic oceans, increased droughts, greater extremes of all kinds, hot records broken (even at night) which outnumber cold records, melting glaciers (though you scorn the predictions of some for lack of precision). Did you predict the Arctic would lose so much ice? No? There goes YOUR credibility.

    Far better batting average than, for example, the deniers who have predicted cooling.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Just wondering if you have the integrity to publish comments that don't mirror your point of view.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi JZF:

    1. Yes, I am an atmospheric scientist.
    2. Yes, I am published.
    3. If you mean the catastrophic global warming hypothesis, I am NOT convinced. See: http://meteorologicalmusings.blogspot.com/2013/09/global-warming-skeptic-consensus.html

    I am unaware of anyone who has forecast cooling in the near term. I think cooling is a possibility the second half of this decade. That said, I don't make long-term forecasts.If you wish to pass along a link of some a legitimate forecast of cooling to begin prior to 2013, I'd be happy to look at it.

    With regard to your first comment, "remarkably low" goes back to 1979. Your "6th lowest" is accurate but is hardly impressive when we are only talking about 37 years (since satellite data of the ice field became available).

    There is anecdotal evidence the ice was less in the 30's and 50's but we don't know because of the lack of satellite data.

    Appreciate the comments.

    Mike

    ReplyDelete

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.