Saturday, June 22, 2013

Four Days of Severe Thunderstorms And Tornadoes

As forecast, yesterday was extremely active in the northern Plains. There were 13 tornadoes. The black triangles are giant hail, green triangles 1-2 inch hail, blue triangles winds of 58 to 74 mph and black squares winds of 75 mph or more.
There are 276,000 homes and businesses without power in the Twin Cities. Unfortunately, three more days of this pattern are forecast.

Today:
When it comes to tornadoes, 5% is the significant threshold.

With damaging winds, 15% is the significant threshold:

And, for ≥1" hail, 15% is the significant threshold. Hatching is where hail >2" is expected.


Another large area is forecast to be affected tomorrow. Here is the combined probability map:

And, for Monday, here is the combined probability map:

And, it isn't just this severe weather pattern that is unusual.

Much of this region was in drought just a few months ago but copious rains continue to accompany the forecast tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. But, take a look at northern California. It is extremely unusual for heavy rains to fall in late June. Thunderstorms may occur with the heavy rains tomorrow and tomorrow night!

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