From what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
I'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
I think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.
The forecast path of the center of Hilary has shifted a bit to the west. This increases the threat to the Southland, especially in terms of flooding. Rainfall Note the heavy rains are forecast for Los Angeles County. Serious flash flooding may result. Because the forecast path has shifted to the west, that increases the threat of serious flooding in Los Angeles County north into Yosemite and the southern Sierra. It lessens the threat in Utah and western Arizona. While the threat of widespread flooding in Utah and Arizona lessens, note that some thunderstorms with localized heavy rain show up on the map. In Nevada, the more western path increases the risk of serious flooding around Mt Charleston and into the central part of the state. Here is the updated (9am PDT) flash flood risk map. Wind There are already about 40,000 people without power in California, mostly in the center of the state. The maps above are the peak gusts forecasted with the storm. The highest winds, in general,
-- Note, more current info available. Scroll up. --- Updated Information as of 8am PDT You are risking your life if you attempt to travel through the purple area. While the rain has not begun in coastal California, I would urge you to use this time to make any preparations. Power outages have occurred already in southeast California. Here is the latest radar as of 7:55am PDT. As of 6:40am PDT , the radar indicates moderate to heavy rain falling over desert areas of Southern California and far western Arizona (click to enlarge). Rainfall amounts for the 24 hours ending at 7am PDT show more than two inches have already fallen. There are reports from reliable sources that roads are already washed out and that people are stranded in isolated parts of the desert. Below is a high-resolution computer model's rainfall forecast from 5am PDT to 11pm PDT Sunday. More than a foot of additional rain is forecast to fall. This will lead to catastrophic flooding. Here is a map of current watc
There was at least one tornado and at least one funnel cloud yesterday. --- original forecast --- Hilary (the swirly symbol) continues to move NNW paralleling the coast of Baja California, Mexico. The area outlined in red has a significant risk of tornadoe s the rest of the afternoon. Below is a list of peak wind gusts so far. Peak winds may increase farther north as the afternoon progresses. Addition at 12 noon PDT: Sure enough, winds have increased. Note: If you are in the San Diego area, I recommend not traveling east on I-8. Heavy rains may cause flash flooding that will involve the highway.
Mike,
ReplyDeleteFrom what I have read and observed, Tim was not as reckless as some of the "Media" affiliated chasers. There were times when watching the "Storm Chasers" program that he did get too close sometimes. If they were in the same area as the Weather Channel team it appears that that would have been to the E to NE of the circulation. While a great place for pictures, it leaves you no place to retreat if anything happens. As you noted in a previous post the tornado can rotate around the mesocyclone following the sinusoidal path.
My perception is that there is significant pressure within the Media based chasers to get more extreme footage of tornadoes. This pressure results in greater and greater risk taking through competition for the closest and perfect shot. Now it appears that this aggressive mentality has resulted in the deaths of three people (pending the investigation of course). Much like war correspondents placing themselves in danger for a story and pictures, these media reps have now passed the same threshold. The real question is do you need to get that perfect back lit shot of the tornado knowing that you are on the E to NE side with very few avenues for escape? For me I would say no. My only hope is that Tim was placing instrumentation in the path for data gathering, and that the data is usable. It would make his and the two other members of his team's sacrifice to have been more that just some video and pictures for a reality show.
Richard,
ReplyDeleteI'm confident Tim was attempting to do good Friday. The tornado was shifting in its movement (scroll down to see explanation of sinusoidal path). For those that were close, options likely diminished very quickly.
Several seem to want me to write more about this and I'm working a piece right now.
Mike
I think the pressure to get the best tornado video is the result of two things: One, the mass market availability of HD video. And two, ironically, the availability of accurate advance warning data.
ReplyDeleteI think once the market gets saturated with up-close HD tornado video, the pressure to get new videos will go down.
Finally, I think that the tornado videos do serve a useful educational purpose-- they show how quickly a tornado can drop and intensify, how it can appear invisible initially, how violent the inflow winds can be and how debris can choke the escape route and destroy a vehicle. All these things are useful things for the layperson to know and see.
I think back to the Boxing Day Tsunami. Lots of people stood there watching the ocean recede, because they had never seen a tsunami before. Now that there is ample video, no one will stand on the beach gawking at a disappearing ocean ever again.
Personally, I think the guys who invest in armored vehicles do the most useful "mass market" service. Yes, they take enormous risks. But there's no illusion that I can safely do what they do with a mere passenger vehicle. And I can see exactly what I never want to experience first hand.