Thursday, September 20, 2012

If the Pattern Change Occurs, How Much Rain Might Result?

The NWS Global Forecast Model forecasts the amount of rainfall out to sixteen days.  It continues to forecast a pattern change that would result in the gradual easing of the drought in many areas. This seems reasonable since an El Nino (warm equatorial waters in the eastern Pacific) often brings wetter than average conditions to the southern half of the U.S.

Here is the forecast rainfall amounts from the model run this morning. For the first eight days of the forecast:

For days nine to sixteen, which is out to October 6th. Amounts in inches and hundredths.
If the weather pattern in fact evolves to one typical of an El Nino, then the storm track -- starting roughly in November -- will begin to move low pressure systems from California inland toward the southern Rockies. From there, they will tend to move east or northeast.

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