Friday, April 13, 2012

Some More Insight into Tomorrow's Tornado Threat

Here is the AccuWeather regional radar at 11:30pm:

Courtesy of my friend Dr. Ryan Maue, here is an NWS model that does a reasonably good job of showing general thunderstorm trends:

For 2-3am Saturday morning, the Oklahoma thunderstorms are forecast to weaken.

The storms from eastern Kansas to Illinois are forecast to produce moderate to heavy rain and, in a few areas, small hail but nothing especially violent.

Below is the forecast for 1-2pm CDT. According to the model, one supercell thunderstorm has developed in south central Kansas and other thunderstorms are starting to develop just west of I-35 in Oklahoma. This is two hours or so earlier than I had thought previously. This model may or may not be correct, but the message here is pay attention to the weather starting around noon.

By 4-5pm (give or take two hours based on my experience), discrete supercells are occurring from Nebraska into Oklahoma.

Please do not take these times and locations too literally. The takeaway from this should be that thunderstorms could develop as early as noon to 1pm and will continue past dark. These thunderstorms will likely produce a number of tornadoes, some of which could be violent.

Addition: 12:24am Saturday...
A second high-resolution computer model shows a supercell thunderstorm (yellow arrow) between noon and 1pm in a somewhat similar position to the Ryan Maue maps two above (1-2pm). Unfortunately, this is as far out as that model goes at this point. The model is also showing storms starting to develop along the "dry line"from near Greensburg to west of Enid (orange). The storms should move toward the northeast.
Again, don't take these forecasts to literally. I'm simply pointing out that things could get dicey as early as noon.

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