Here is the original moisture forecast from the original article:
The band along the Oklahoma border was so small that it was below our ability to place accurately and the probability of that aspect of the forecast being correct was "fair to poor."
Here is what actually fell:
The color scheme of the maps is not the same. The light green equals 0.5 to .74".
The second system along the Oklahoma - Kansas border was the mess I thought it would be. The moisture from the Gulf of Mexico got into the system more slowly than originally expected so the precipitation started as freezing drizzle in many areas which ultimately cut the snow amounts in southern Kansas. Here in Wichita, instead of getting the "around 2 inches" we received freezing drizzle then about a 1/2 inch of snow. Because of slow advance of moisture into the low pressure system, parts of western Kansas received no moisture at all except for trace amounts of drizzle.
In northern Oklahoma, amounts were heavier and more widespread than the initial forecast indicated. This, too, was caught in the updates and a winter storm warning was issued before the ice and snow started falling.
I still think the correct assessment of the southern system forecast is "fair to poor" -- while there certainly was a winter storm, it didn't play out exactly as we thought.
There is a silver lining: We knew that forecast was "low confidence" when it was issued while we knew the northern system was "high confidence." That information can be used by decision makers to improve the quality of their response.
While still a long way from perfection, it is remarkable how far we have come in improving the forecasts and warnings of extreme weather in the last ten years.
UPDATE: Noon Thursday, NOAA updated the actual precipitation data and here it is. The
|Click to enlarge.|